IEA: renewed skirmishes cloud oil market outlook
The oil market has always been a mirror of geopolitics: when guns fall silent in the Middle East, prices edge down, and when new conflict erupts, they spike. June brought hope: shipments through the Strait of Hormuz resumed, prices fell and demand began to recover. But the fragile balance is once again under threat — new skirmishes between the US and Iran remind us that market stability is impossible without lasting peace in the region.
On Friday, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said that in June, as oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz resumed, global oil prices fell and demand began to recover, but renewed skirmishes between the United States and Iran are clouding the market outlook. In its latest monthly oil market report, the agency noted that global oil consumption is recovering from the lows recorded in May.
The report said oil production in parts of the Persian Gulf began to recover as shipments through the Strait of Hormuz gradually resumed. Global oil supply rose by 4.1 million barrels per day in June to 98.8 million bpd, but that level remains about 9.4 million bpd below pre war levels. Daily oil exports from the Persian Gulf region rose by 6.5 million bpd in June to 16.1 million bpd, still well below the roughly 24 million bpd recorded before the war.
Despite a sharp drop in international oil prices in June, the IEA warned that renewed skirmishes between the United States and Iran this week have clouded the outlook, saying that reaching a "durable peace agreement" is a "necessary condition for normalising oil markets". The IEA said global oil supplies could improve further if the renewed hostilities are quickly de escalated. The agency forecasts that if transit volumes through the Strait of Hormuz increase, global oil supplies will rise by 7.5 million barrels per day in 2027.
The Strait of Hormuz is a key transport artery through which about 20% of global oil supplies pass. Its partial blockade in the spring of 2026 caused a sharp spike in prices and supply chain disruptions. The resumption of transit in June raised hopes of stabilisation, but the new round of conflict between Washington and Tehran once again calls market sustainability into question.
As CCTV+ reports. Analysts agree that only a comprehensive peace agreement can provide a long term foundation for predictable oil prices.
