Iraq denies rumours of OPEC exit: country seeks quota review, not rupture

Exports collapsed from 99.8 million barrels in February to 9.88 million in April due to regional conflict. Oil provides 90% of the country's revenue. Iraq insists on quota revision based on actual capacity, while OPEC has already begun restoring cut production.

As reported by CCTV+, Iraq's Oil Ministry on Thursday denied media reports that the country was considering leaving the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). The ministry said in a statement that neither the prime minister nor the government had raised the issue of withdrawal, and that Iraq consistently emphasises the importance of revising oil production quotas in line with member states' sustainable production capacities, in accordance with the agreement approved by all relevant countries and arrangements regarding security and the economic situation in Iraq.

OPEC and allied countries have responded to this approach by launching a process to review member states' maximum sustainable production capacities, the statement said. It noted that OPEC and its allies have already begun gradually restoring reduced output, with the full restoration of all voluntary cuts scheduled to be completed over the next few months, which will help strengthen Iraq's production quota. Any demands regarding production quotas or capacity levels will be addressed within the established technical and consensus based mechanisms within OPEC and its allies.

Earlier on Thursday, news reports citing Iraqi sources said that if Iraq's oil production quota is not increased, Iraq could leave OPEC. Iraq's economy is heavily dependent on crude exports, which account for about 90% of state revenues. Iraq's oil exports plummeted in April to 9.88 million barrels due to the regional conflict, compared with about 99.8 million barrels in February.

Iraq is OPEC's second largest oil producer after Saudi Arabia. Oil revenues account for about 90% of government income. The collapse in exports from 99.8 million barrels in February to 9.88 million in April reflects the impact of the regional conflict on logistics and production. OPEC quotas are based on member states' declared production capacities. Iraq has repeatedly expressed dissatisfaction with its quota, believing it is underestimated relative to its actual capabilities. The capacity review mentioned in the statement is a technical procedure that could take several months.

When a country 90% dependent on oil loses 90% of its exports in two months, panic is inevitable. Rumours of leaving OPEC are not a whim but a cry for help. Iraq does not want to break ties — it wants to be heard. Its quota does not match its actual capabilities, and the Middle East conflict has blocked export routes. But OPEC is not just a cartel — it is a system of checks and balances.

Iraq remains inside but demands a rule change. And while technical experts calculate capacities, Baghdad continues to pump oil and hope its voice is heard. In a world where energy has become a weapon, even the most dependent player seeks a way to save face.