OPEC lowers 2026 global oil demand growth forecast to 780,000 bpd, but raises 2027 estimate
The oil market has never been predictable — it breathes in time with geopolitics, economic cycles and the climate agenda. When OPEC adjusts its forecasts, it sends a signal not only to traders but also to governments planning budgets and energy strategies. The downward revision for 2026 and the simultaneous upward revision for 2027 reflect the duality of the current situation: short term uncertainty coexists with long term confidence in recovery.
According to a report by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) released on Monday, global oil demand is forecast to grow by 780,000 barrels per day (bpd) in 2026. OPEC revised its forecast downward from its June projection, which had estimated growth of one million bpd. Non OECD countries are expected to account for the largest share of oil demand growth, rising by about 740,000 bpd in 2026. For 2027, global oil demand is estimated to grow by 1.94 million bpd, an upward revision of about 200,000 bpd compared with OPEC's June forecast.
On the supply side, crude oil production by OPEC+ countries increased by about three million bpd in June compared with the previous month, averaging 36.28 million bpd, the report said. However, Saudi Arabia, the largest producer, reported a decline in oil output in June compared with May.
OPEC's revised forecast reflects a combination of factors: slowing economic growth in China and Europe, as well as uncertainty over trade tariffs and monetary policy. At the same time, OPEC remains optimistic for 2027, expecting faster demand from developing economies. The rise in OPEC+ production in June is linked to recovering supplies from Gulf countries following the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, though the drop in Saudi output may signal the top exporter's intention to prevent prices from falling.
As CCTV+ reports. Analysts note that the market balance will remain fragile until the geopolitical situation becomes clearer.
