The Caspian Crossroads and Central Asia’s New Geoeconomic Agency: The Avaza Context
Modern Central Asia is purposefully shedding old stereotypes of fragmentation and demonstrating a completely new model of regional consolidation to the world. The primary strength of this process lies in its flexible, fundamentally non-institutionalized nature; the region’s countries consciously eschew the creation of rigid supranational bureaucratic bodies modeled after the European Union.
Instead of cumbersome ministerial superstructures prone to tactical stagnation and endless coordination processes, Tashkent, Astana, Bishkek, Dushanbe, and Ashgabat have opted for a format of Consultative Meetings of Heads of State and standing ministerial platforms. This pragmatic approach allows Central Asian leaders to retain absolute sovereignty and maneuverability while acting as a unified geoeconomic entity on the international stage.
The absence of rigid legal constraints fosters closer ties based on tangible economic benefits and mutual trust, transforming the region from a mere object of foreign policy into a strong, independent player capable of autonomously shaping the agenda across the Eurasian space.
A historical retrospective of this process clearly illustrates how the mindset of elites and the public has shifted over a relatively short period; with their support, a diplomatic breakthrough was achieved, definitively transforming the region from a theater of invisible rivalry into a zone of strategic collaboration.
Focus on the Caspian–Central Asian Crossroads
A new era began in March 2018, when the first—and largely symbolic—gathering of Central Asian heads of state took place in Astana. That inaugural summit marked a long-awaited political thaw; its primary objective was simply to resume direct dialogue—unencumbered by external intermediaries—following years of mutual grievances, border disputes, and accumulated tensions regarding water and energy resources.
While the meeting lacked a rigid agenda, it established a crucial psychological consensus: the region could and should resolve its own problems through the efforts of Central Asian capitals alone, without guidance or directives from third countries.
The preparation and hosting of each subsequent Consultative Meeting—from Tashkent in 2019 to Ashgabat in 2026—have consistently deepened this mutual trust, infusing symbolic handshakes with concrete geoeconomic substance.
A turning point in the evolution of the format was the signing of the Treaty on Friendship, Good-Neighborliness, and Cooperation for the Development of Central Asia in the 21st Century, which laid a solid international legal foundation for further regional rapprochement.
Effort coordination shifted to the level of regular meetings involving foreign ministers, think tanks, and joint working groups—including those addressing border demarcation and water resource allocation.
By the time preparations for the October summit of Central Asian heads of state in Avaza were underway, this non-institutionalized format had definitively proven its viability, evolving into an effective mechanism for rapid response to global challenges.
The region has learned to formulate a unified, jointly calculated position on pressing issues of the Eurasian agenda—ranging from the coordination of transit tariffs along the Trans-Caspian transport corridor to the establishment of pragmatic relations with Afghanistan and the power centers of a multipolar world.
Regular, scheduled dialogue at the foreign ministry level has made it possible to alleviate long-standing customs and transport barriers without the need for supranational bodies, thereby demonstrating that respect for sovereignty, relations based on trust, and mutual economic benefit bind these countries together more firmly than any bureaucratic constraints.
The upcoming meeting on the Turkmen coast aims not merely to take stock of this eight-year journey, but to cement the transition of these Consultative Meetings from a crisis-management format into a permanent mechanism for Eurasian integration.
The Caspian-Black Sea Bridge and the Logistics Gateway via Baku
The Trans-Caspian International Route, combined with Baku’s active engagement in the Central Asian consensus, is emerging as the strategic link that transforms the region's geographic landlocked status into a major geoeconomic advantage.
Historically, Central Asian states were critically dependent on transit routes through third countries—a situation that severely constrained their national economic growth and posed risks to their investment appeal.
However, current realities demand the creation of alternative, rapid, and sovereign logistics arteries capable of seamlessly connecting China’s rapidly expanding manufacturing capacity and Central Asia’s vast natural resources with European consumer markets.
The in-person participation of President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev in the Consultative Meeting of Heads of State in Avaza on October 8 is expected to officially cement Baku’s status as the reliable key to the South Caucasus gateway—opening up new Eurasian transit horizons for Central Asia—and elevate the macro-region’s economic integration to a transcontinental level.
The systematic modernization of port infrastructure in the Caspian region has the potential to transform the waterway from a dividing barrier into a continuous transport corridor, where the Turkmen port of Turkmenbashi and the Kazakh ports of Aktau and Kuryk work in close, integrated coordination with the Azerbaijani port of Alyat.
Joint efforts by foreign policy and sectoral agencies are aimed at establishing a unified logistics operator and developing mathematically precise, end-to-end tariff rates, thereby drastically reducing delivery times for containerized cargo.
An extensive network of Eurasian transport routes provides a united Central Asia with direct, secure access to the Black Sea basin and the Mediterranean via the Baku–Tbilisi–Kars railway, effectively insulating trade flows from modern geopolitical shocks.
This corridor does more than just transport resources; it fosters the development of major industrial zones, logistics hubs, and dry ports along its route, thereby attracting significant foreign investment into the manufacturing sectors of Central Asia and neighboring states.
Moreover, the energy dimension of Trans-Caspian cooperation holds global significance, opening new avenues for diversifying exports—ranging from hydrocarbons and green energy to the rare-earth metals essential for high-tech industries and microelectronics—from Central Asia to Southern and Central Europe.
Joint initiatives to lay deep-sea fiber-optic cables across the Caspian seabed and expand existing pipeline infrastructure are establishing Azerbaijan as a key partner in the transport of Turkmen gas and Kazakh oil.
This emerging geoeconomic alliance demonstrates to the world that the path toward Eurasian integration leaves no room for the old rivalries over markets that once prevailed. Coordinated action by the nations of Central Asia and Azerbaijan can forge a unified trade and energy corridor, ensuring long-term prosperity, stability, and high competitiveness for the entire vast region.
The "CA+" Diplomatic Geometry: A Unified Monolith of Friendly States
A logical and compelling testament to the diplomatic maturity of Central Asian integration is the qualitative shift in how the region interacts with global power centers through the prism of "CA-Plus" multilateral dialogue platforms.
In recent history, leading global powers traditionally preferred to build relations with the region's states through bilateral diplomacy; this fueled often artificial rivalries between capitals and allowed external players to employ a "divide and rule" strategy.
Today, however—thanks to regular Consultative Meetings and the concerted coordination of their foreign ministries—Central Asian nations have achieved a monumental diplomatic breakthrough, compelling Washington, Beijing, Brussels, and Moscow to engage with the region exclusively as a single, monolithic geoeconomic entity.
The "Central Asia Plus" formats—involving the US, China, the EU, and Russia—have evolved from mere discussion forums into pragmatic negotiation platforms where Tashkent, Astana, Bishkek, Dushanbe, and Ashgabat present unified, carefully calculated positions, collectively safeguarding their national interests, sovereignty, and pace of economic development.
In relations with the People's Republic of China, this consolidated approach has enabled the redirection of Beijing’s investment flows from simple raw material procurement toward the large-scale modernization of the entire region's industrial and transport infrastructure.
Within the "Central Asia Plus China" framework, the states of the macro-region coordinate the alignment of their national development strategies with the global "Belt and Road Initiative," thereby avoiding the duplication of logistics projects and establishing complementary production chains along new corridors.
In the dialogue with Washington and Brussels, the "Central Asia Plus" format has served as a reliable shield, protecting the region's investment appeal against the risks of secondary sanctions and global geopolitical shocks, while transforming Western interest into tangible technology transfers, green energy grants, and joint projects to develop critical mineral resources.
A coordinated stance within the "Central Asia Plus Russia" framework ensures the preservation of deep, centuries-old trade, economic, and humanitarian ties based on absolute equality, turning Eurasian logistics routes into a zone of shared security and stability.
The upcoming October summits in Avaza are intended to formally cement this diplomatic success, demonstrating that Central Asia is no longer an arena for a new "Great Game" among superpowers, but rather sets the rules of the game within its own sovereign territory.
In Summary: On the Threshold of a New Multipolar Central Asian World
The Avaza diplomatic consensus on integration is on the verge of becoming a reality. The October meetings of the heads of state of Central Asia, Azerbaijan, and the CIS, held on the Turkmen coast of the Caspian Sea, are set to mark tectonic shifts in the geopolitical architecture of Eurasia.
The long and promising journey we have discussed at length is transforming from theoretical projections into a tangible geoeconomic reality. Central Asian nations are demonstrating through action that the ability to jointly address shared challenges, pragmatically steer Afghanistan toward constructive engagement, and build Trans-Caspian bridges is far more effective than rigid supranational constraints.
As the Avaza summit approaches, all the states of the region stand as equal architects of their own destiny. This non-institutionalized yet monolithic community possesses all the resources, the conscious will, and the tactical wisdom to rewrite the economic history of vast Eurasia, thereby securing long-term prosperity for their peoples.
Bekdurdy AMANSARYEV, Center for Strategic Studies, Institute of International Relations, Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Turkmenistan
