IMF raises 2026 global growth forecast to 3.1 percent
The International Monetary Fund has raised its 2026 global growth forecast to 3.1 percent, up 0.1 percentage point from its July projection, as strong investment in artificial intelligence helps offset the economic impact of the Middle East conflict.
In its latest World Economic Outlook, the IMF expects global growth to slow from 3.5 percent in 2025 to 3.1 percent in 2026 before recovering to 3.4 percent in 2027.
The fund said growth is becoming increasingly concentrated. Just 32 economies now account for around 95 percent of global growth, compared with 54 in April, while forecasts for nearly half of all economies have been downgraded.
The strongest performers are countries with limited exposure to energy shocks and close links to AI hardware supply chains. By contrast, many energy-importing and low-income economies face higher import costs, weaker currencies and falling real incomes.
The IMF's baseline scenario assumes the Strait of Hormuz will reopen in March 2027 and conditions will broadly return to prewar levels by October. Before the conflict, the strait carried about a quarter of the world's seaborne oil trade.
The fund estimates that a prolonged closure without offsetting measures could have reduced global growth by 0.9 percentage points. Rerouted supplies, higher production elsewhere and inventory drawdowns lowered the net impact to around 0.3 percentage points.
Saudi Arabia's 2026 forecast was cut by 5 percentage points to a contraction of 3.3 percent. Bahrain, Iraq, Kuwait and Qatar are also expected to record double-digit declines.
The IMF expects oil prices to average 95.74 U.S. dollars per barrel in 2026, around 41 percent higher than in 2025. Global inflation is forecast to rise from 4.1 percent in 2025 to 4.7 percent in 2026 before easing back to 4.1 percent in 2027.
Among major economies, U.S. growth is forecast at 2.3 percent in both 2026 and 2027, while the euro area is expected to expand by 1.1 percent and 1.2 percent respectively. India is projected to grow by 7 percent in both years. According to CCTV+, the IMF sees the global economy as resilient but increasingly shaped by energy risks and investment in artificial intelligence.
