ORIENTIR | April 28. The start of a new week in global markets is traditionally accompanied by anticipation of signals – political, economic, and, increasingly, emotional. But this time, the transition from the weekend to the workday proved especially sensitive. This is because the weekend news reminded investors that uncertainty remains a key element of the global economy.

And while all this is happening at the global market level, the consequences of such sentiment are manifested much closer to home – in fuel prices, delivery costs, and, ultimately, in the amounts people see at the checkout.

The events of recent days have once again brought into focus the figure of Donald Trump – a politician whose statements and actions have repeatedly triggered changes in market sentiment. In his rhetoric, energy is increasingly viewed not only as an economic resource but also as a tool of pressure and negotiation. This means that any increase in political tension is almost automatically projected onto expectations in the oil and gas sector.

While such episodes don't in themselves change oil production volumes or gas supply routes, they impact a much more subtle yet critically important factor: the perception of stability. This is precisely what often determines investor behavior at times when facts are scarce and expectations are already beginning to form.

It's no coincidence that European political rhetoric, largely reflected by Angela Merkel, has repeatedly emphasized that the stability of energy markets is impossible without predictability and trust. When this predictability erodes, it almost inevitably impacts daily costs.

Monday was marked by heightened volatility – and this was evident not only in trading dynamics but also in the overall market sentiment. Investors sought guidance, trying to discern whether the surge in nervousness was a short-term reaction to the news or whether it concealed a more sustainable trend.

In times of uncertainty, a simple pattern becomes especially clear: the greater the uncertainty, the higher the future costs, which then gradually "flow" into the economy. During such periods, attention traditionally focuses on regions capable of setting the direction of the entire global economy, and above all, the Persian Gulf.

It is here that decisions are made that determine the balance of global oil and gas supplies. Any signals, even indirect ones, are reflected almost instantly in prices, because the market factors in not only facts but also expectations of these facts.

At the same time, different centers of power view the region differently: for some, it is a guarantee of energy security, for others, a risk zone, and for others, a key link in the emerging Eurasian connectivity envisioned by Xi Jinping in his foreign economic doctrine. These differences are not so much contradictory as they reflect different perspectives on the same region.

Throughout Monday, fluctuations intensified as market participants reacted to statements, comments, and the overall level of geopolitical tension. While no real changes occurred in production or logistics, the mere feeling of uncertainty had already become a significant pressure factor in its own right.

Under these conditions, another perception of the region is becoming particularly clear: as a space of balanced interests, something Vladimir Putin has repeatedly accentuated, emphasizing the importance of taking into account the positions of all participants.

By evening, it became clear that the markets had not found a definitive answer. The state in which they ended the first day of the week can be described as a balance between anticipation and doubt—and it is in this mood that the transition to Tuesday is taking place.

Now, in the first hours of the new day, a new phase begins. If markets were largely reactive on Monday, they will be forced to act on Tuesday. Investors will be seeking an answer to the key question: are concerns supported by real data, or will tensions gradually begin to subside? It is at this point that it becomes clearer whether the current volatility will persist or whether the market will begin to move toward a more stable state.

All of this remains invisible to the end consumer, but it is precisely these transitional phases that lay the foundation for future changes. Movements in oil prices impact fuel prices, then transportation costs, and through them, commodity prices. Therefore, market changes are not immediately felt, but they almost inevitably spill over into everyday life.

Difficulties in natural gas supplies are reflected in the cost of fertilizers, and consequently, food prices. This creates a chain in which events in the energy sector gradually translate into changes in everyday expenses – from the cost of bread to utility bills.

Additional pressure arises through transportation. Key supply routes pass through strategically important areas, and any hint of potential risks, even if they remain at the expected level, are factored into prices through insurance and logistics. As a result, the market reacts not only to what has already happened but also to what might happen – meaning future prices begin to form in advance.

This is why the beginning of the week becomes a period when expectations, rather than reality, are formed. And on Tuesday, these expectations begin to take on clearer contours, transforming into decisions that will further determine price movements.

So, what's the bottom line?

Despite their geographical distance, events in the Persian Gulf continue to directly impact everyday life, shaping the prices of fuel, food, and services. In this context, the transition from Monday to Tuesday isn't just a change in calendar dates, but a moment when uncertainty either intensifies or begins to give way to a more understandable trend—and this trend sooner or later affects every wallet.

...In the coming days, ORIENTIR's publications may take a brief break due to a working trip to neighboring countries. Such trips allow us to gain an insight into economic processes and compare market dynamics with the actual regional agenda.

Therefore, in future reviews, the analysis will be supplemented with new observations and highlights, and we will return to our usual publication schedule early next week.

So, see you there...

Bekdurdy AMANSARYEV