ORIENTIR| May 5. The pause, both in our publications and in the developments in the Persian Gulf, didn't halt processes – it merely allowed them to unfold. In the days while readers' attention was distracted, global markets continued to exist in a state that is increasingly difficult to call temporary instability. Rather, we are witnessing the emergence of a "new normal," where risk expectations not only outpace actual events but are actively shaping market reality.

The week on the stock exchanges was marked by an uneasy equilibrium. Oil prices didn't show any sharp drops, but they also failed to find a stable foothold, fluctuating under the influence of several factors at once – from political signals to expectations of producer decisions.

In the early hours of Tuesday, as Asia enters the trading session, it becomes clear that the market remains uncertain. But it is precisely this state of uncertainty that is beginning to transform into a stable factor.

In this situation, the behavior of energy markets is particularly telling. Oil is holding at relatively high levels not so much because of the current shortage, but because of fears of a more acute one. This means that prices increasingly reflect probability rather than reality.

Gas, including liquefied natural gas, follows the same logic – its price is determined not only by contracts but also by logistics, which has once again come into focus in recent weeks. Any supply risks, even hypothetical ones, are beginning to be factored into prices in advance. And this will likely continue as a sustainable practice.

The Persian Gulf remains a key hub here. Everything that happens around it continues to immediately impact the markets. In this context, statements by politicians, including Donald Trump, are once again the focus of investors' attention, including the latest announcement of Operation Freedom.

But the market reacts less to the words themselves than to the possible scenarios they imply. And the less predictable these scenarios become, the higher the risk premium priced into prices.

Power centers and leaders of the multipolar world continue to view the "hot" region through their own prism. The European approach, once shaped by former Chancellor Angela Merkel, is built around predictability and trust; the Chinese approach is built around stable connections and logistics, consistently promoted by Xi Jinping; and the Russian emphasis, reflected in Vladimir Putin's positions, is linked to the need to balance interests.

These differences are not so much contradictory as they indicate that a single scenario is becoming increasingly unlikely.

Against this backdrop, the main effect is gradually becoming apparent, becoming increasingly noticeable to the average person. Rising oil and gas prices are not confined to stock market charts. They are reflected in the cost of fuel, then in transportation costs, and through them in the prices of virtually all goods.

This is what Hormuz taught everyone to understand: that there is a direct and inextricable link between a barrel of oil and the price of logistics, medicine, flour, candy, school notebooks, and much more. Geopolitical anxiety in the Gulf instantly translates into inflation on supermarket shelves around the world.

Gas, in turn, impacts fertilizers, and therefore agriculture and food production. And here an important feature of the current period emerges, which boils down to a simple and not very encouraging thought: even if prices temporarily stabilize, this does not always mean they will decline in everyday life.

This is precisely why discussions about the Persian Gulf are no longer narrowly professional. They are becoming part of everyday reality, conversations in the kitchen, during work breaks, and on public transportation.

Gasoline prices remain uneven across countries. In some places, they are being moderated by government policy, while in others, they continue to rise, forcing people to change their lifestyles.

In some regions, restrictions and support measures are being discussed, while in others, energy strategies are being revised, even to the point of returning to energy sources they had recently abandoned.

As European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen did, acknowledging Europe's abandonment of nuclear energy as a strategic mistake. Now, European officials will attempt to reinstate what they themselves once abandoned. This demonstrates that the period of adaptation is not yet over.

At the same time, another trend is gaining momentum: the importance of supply routes. In conditions of instability, not only those with resources benefit, but also those who control their delivery routes. It is here that land routes, and Central Asia in particular, demonstrate their fundamental reliability, compared favorably to vulnerable sea routes.

The negative aspects listed above, along with their consequences, once again highlight the advantages of pipeline hydrocarbon supplies. Although their construction is expensive, they offer long-term benefits due to the reliability of supplies and price stability, regardless of current market conditions, thanks to the fact that contracts typically stipulate upper and lower price limits.

Observations made in the region only confirm the logic that sustainability is increasingly ensured not only by the availability of resources but also by the predictability of their transportation. And if current trends continue, the importance of such routes will only increase.

In this context, the development of pipeline infrastructure is particularly important. Turkmenistan, by consistently expanding its export capacity, has demonstrated that relying on long-term contracts and stable routes helps mitigate the impact of external shocks. For example, the Turkmenistan-China gas pipeline currently exports gas via three lines.

Just recently, in April, the fourth stage of commercial development of this hydrocarbon reservoir was launched at Galkynysh, one of the world's largest gas fields. Its key facility will be a commercial gas processing plant with a capacity of 10 billion cubic meters per year, which will also supply Turkmen gas via a new, fourth line (Line D).

Thus, launching new stages of field development and expanding gas supplies are not simply economic projects, but elements of a broader resilience strategy, which acquires additional value in the face of global turbulence.

At a recent meeting of the Cabinet of Ministers of Turkmenistan, the results of the fuel and energy sector's performance over the first four months of the year were reviewed. These demonstrated robust growth across all types of output—LNG, gasoline, diesel fuel, and lubricants. However, despite these results, the President of Turkmenistan ordered an increase in oil and gas production and the utilization of all production capacities.

On Monday, a telephone conversation took place between the heads of the Foreign Ministries of Turkmenistan and Iran, Rashid Meredov and Seyed Abbas Araghchi. Among the issues discussed was the need to rely exclusively on political and diplomatic instruments to prevent conflicts in international practice. This is fully consistent with Turkmenistan's neutral status and reflects its role as a peacekeeping center, which has a significant influence on the policies of countries in the region.

Against this backdrop, diplomatic activity also takes on particular significance. Contacts between regional players reflect a desire to keep processes on a political and diplomatic track. This is another factor that markets take into account, albeit not always directly. The more signals there are about the possibility of dialogue, the higher the likelihood of temporary stabilization, albeit without eliminating the underlying causes of tension.

As a result, the main point has become clear during the pause: uncertainty has not disappeared; it is being informally legitimized, becoming part of the system itself. Markets are adapting to this state, but adaptation does not mean a reduction in risks—rather, their redistribution over time.

And looking ahead, the most likely scenario remains continued volatility with periodic attempts at stabilization. Sharp fluctuations may give way to relative calm, but sensitivity to any signals, especially from the Persian Gulf, is unlikely to decrease in the near future.

The outcome remains the same, though it takes on a clearer outline. The Persian Gulf today is not just a point on the mining map, but a complex geopolitical nexus where the interests of big politics, the global economy, and security converge. And the impulse generated at this nexus inevitably, albeit with a slight delay, reaches the wallets of every ordinary person.

Bekdurdy AMANSARYEV